The Big Analysis

TBW - Circle: highlights of excellent Q4 results

The Big Whale

27 Feb 2026 — 2 min read

Circle reached a symbolic milestone this week at its latest earnings call. The company beat sales forecasts by 2.8% in Q4, posting sales of $770 million, $21 million above consensus.

But it was on net profitability that the biggest surprise came: earnings per share (EPS) came in at $0.43, beating estimates of $0.16. The market reacted immediately to these figures, propelling the stock up 35.4% over the session.

An acceleration driven by EURC and institutional customers

While the 2025 financial year ended with a net loss (EPS of -$0.44), the last quarter showed signs of structural recovery. Three factors explain this performance:

The resilience of reserves:While the overall stablecoin market stagnated, USDC supply grew by 72% over the year, with transaction volumes exploding by 247%.
The European offensive: EURC, Circle's euro-denominated stablecoin, is establishing itself as a growth driver with a 284% year-on-year increase. It now captures almost 50% of the euro stablecoin market share.
Cost control: Remuneration fees are down, stabilising a historically heavy cost structure.

Circle's pitch remains unchanged: transparency and regulatory compliance.

It is this positioning that is enabling USDC to nibble away at market share against its competitor Tether (USDT), particularly on settlement flows and on-chain yield products. Circle's payment network (CPN) now boasts an annualised volume of $5.7 billion.

The Big Whale's analysis

The picture is not without its dark spots, however. While Circle is managing for the time being to offset the fall in interest rates with a massive increase in deposits, the business model is facing a major bottleneck: the distribution agreement with Coinbase.

Today, around 60% of the revenue generated by USDC goes to Brian Armstrong's platform. With interest rates set to fall in 2026, this cost is becoming a burden that is difficult to sustain in order to maintain organic growth.

The stock also remains well below its all-time highs ($87 compared with $298 in June 2025). Selling pressure from post-IPO insiders and still-high operating costs are weighing on the valuation.

The challenge for Jeremy Allaire, CEO of Circle, will be twofold in 2026: successfully pivoting the Coinbase deal and, above all, diversifying its revenue streams.

With an almost total dependence on US Treasury bond yields, Circle must prove that it can generate value on its own, independent of Federal Reserve cycles.

>> USDC / Circle - Mapping systemic risks

>> What impact will rate cuts have on the profitability of Tether and Circle?

>> Circle and Coinbase: the secrets of a $172 million-a-year pact

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