TBW - Digital Asset Treasuries: the moment of truth for the Strategy and Bitmine models
The market is experiencing severe turbulence. While the correction is affecting all assets, from precious metals to AI-related technology stocks (with AMD, Palantir and Microsoft posting declines of more than 10% from their peaks), one asset class is suffering a more marked disinterest: digital asset treasuries (DATs).
At the heart of this storm, two players are focusing the attention of institutional investors: Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) and Bitmine.
>> Report - Digital Assets Treasuries (DATs): a good bet, really?
Bitmine: "A bug or a feature?"
After the publication of his fourth-quarter results, Tom Lee, chairman of Bitmine, had to justify a colossal latent loss of $6.6 billion on his Ethereum (ETH) positions.
His response, which has gone viral ("it's a feature, not a bug") underlines the philosophy behind these vehicles: pure exposure with no operational leverage to the underlying. Bitmine does not seek to time the market, but to accumulate tokens.
For investors, the question remains: can this model survive a prolonged winter without capitulating?
Strategy: on the ropes, but not knocked out.
The case of Strategy is more complex. The company reported an abysmal net loss of $12.4 billion for the last quarter of 2025, or -$42.93 per share. Even more worrying, the operating loss was -$17.4 billion over the same period.
With an average cost price of $76,000 per BTC, Strategy is "underwater" by around $10,000 per unit. Of its total holdings, the latent shortfall is close to $7 billion. For all that, is the structure in immediate peril?
Cool analysis of the figures suggests a certain resilience:
Cash mattress: Strategy has built up a reserve of $2.3 billion in cash in Q4 2025.
Debt coverage: Annual obligations (coupons and dividends on preference shares) amount to around $795 million. With its current reserves, the company has enough to last three years without raising a penny of additional debt.
Distant maturities: If convertible debt holders suffer a latent loss of $1 billion, the first major maturity will not occur until September 2027.
Strategy is playing for time. Its survival depends exclusively on Bitcoin's ability to bounce back before its cash reserves run out. However, its risk profile has hardened. The stock has a 6-year rolling beta of between 1.3 and 1.8 relative to BTC. Put simply: every 1% fall in Bitcoin translates into a 1.3% to 1.8% fall in MSTR shares.
At the latest earnings call, management said that the "breakpoint" (the level at which the company would no longer be able to service its debt) would be around $8,000 per BTC.
>> Strategy : Michael Saylor's black scenario
The risk of dilution: the real danger for shareholders
While bankruptcy may seem a long way off, the risk for the common shareholder is very real. With a persistent net asset value (mNAV) below 1, the company loses its ability to raise funds in an accretive manner. To continue accumulating Bitcoins or simply fund its lifestyle, Strategy could be forced to issue shares at a significant discount.
This forced dilution mechanism explains why the stock is already down 80% from its November 2024 peak. The message is clear: Strategy is no longer a company, it is an ultra-volatile derivative whose survival depends on the timing of the next bull run.
>> Report - Bitcoin Treasury Companies : Diving into a business model unlike any other in the world
