TBW - Exclusive study - Institutional purchases could push Bitcoin price to $180,000 by 2026
The institutional appetite for Bitcoin began in 2020 with the first strategies for listed companies to buy BTC. But it really asserted itself with the arrival of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024.
The largest asset managers then gave their clients access to the asset via regulated, structured products that could be easily integrated into traditional portfolios. Since their launch, ETFs have accumulated 1.4 million bitcoins. IBIT, managed by BlackRock, dominates by a wide margin with 671,790 BTC and has rapidly risen to $10 billion and then $50 billion in assets under management.
In total, ETFs now hold around $137 billion in assets. Their mechanics create a continuous and regular demand that permanently injects capital into the Bitcoin market.
But since the beginning of 2025, another subject has been capturing attention: that of companies that have made Bitcoin a strategic component of their cash flow. The phenomenon, initiated back in August 2020 by Strategy (ex-MicroStrategy), has gained momentum.
Today, 1.107 million BTC are held by companies, around 73% of which are listed companies. Strategy retains a pioneering advantage with just over 580,000 BTC, or half of identified holdings.
The year 2024 marked a clear acceleration: reserves held in Bitcoin by companies almost doubled, from 591,000 to 1.107 million bitcoins. Since the start of 2025, these purchases have increased by a further 234,736 BTC, equivalent to 143% of the annual issuance of new Bitcoins by miners.
After ETFs and companies, a third category of players could become more involved in Bitcoin: governments. The precedent of El Salvador has opened up a dynamic that could lead other countries to consider Bitcoin as a strategic asset, particularly in a reserve logic.
This report analyses the impact of the adoption of ETFs and treasury strategies on the Bitcoin market, and explores the implications of a scenario in which states enter into an accumulation logic.
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What impact have ETFs had on the Bitcoin market?
The arrival of spot ETFs has profoundly changed the way investors gain exposure to Bitcoin. These vehicles have introduced structural and ongoing demand, allowing many asset managers to allocate capital within a regulated framework. Since their launch on 12 January 2024, ETFs have accumulated more than 1.3 million bitcoins, a level now close to the volumes held by companies that have integrated BTC into their treasury. By mid-June 2025, cumulative inflows into these products reached $45 billion.
Prior to their launch, Bitcoin's market capitalisation hovered around $900 billion. A year and a half later, it has exceeded $2,100 billion, an increase of $1,275 billion.
If we attribute this development solely to ETF flows, it would be equivalent to a multiplier effect of 28, in other words: every dollar invested via an ETF would have resulted in a $28 increase in the asset's capitalisation.
The correlation between daily ETF flows and the daily performance of BTC remains weak, with a coefficient of determination (R²) of just 0.0472. This means that daily variations in flows explain only a very small proportion of price variations. Nevertheless, the slope of the trend line remains positive, indicating that positive net flows tend to be accompanied by increases.
By contrast, the correlation between cumulative flows and total valuation is much more marked: the R² reaches 0.8798, i.e. a statistically strong link between the accumulation of ETF flows and the appreciation of BTC since January 2024.
The data shows that this steady demand, initiated by ETFs, has contributed significantly to Bitcoin's upward momentum over the past 18 months. It reflects sustained interest from institutional investors, and there is no sign yet of a slowdown.
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What impact will Strategy have on the price of Bitcoin?
Beyond ETFs, companies that have chosen to include Bitcoin in their balance sheets are playing a central role in the current market dynamics. Among them, one company stands out for its lead and the size of its positions: Strategy.
The company now holds 592,000 bitcoins, acquired at an average price of $70,681. Since 15 June 2024, it has bought a further 377,945, for a total of $26.7 billion injected into the market. If we apply the same logic to these figures as for ETFs (assuming Strategy is solely responsible for the price rise) this would give a multiplier effect of 47.74x.
In contrast to ETFs, whose effects on prices have been more visible, Strategy purchases have been gradual. The market does not always react immediately to announcements.
In November 2024, some of the company's largest purchases resulted in limited price changes, with hourly returns of +0.48% and -0.49%. In other cases, such as in February 2021, the announcement of a massive purchase had even been followed by a decline, typical of a "sell the news" scenario.
When the announcement was made on 21 February 2025, at 9:50pm (Paris time), regarding the purchase of 20,356 BTC, the price hardly moved at all. The hourly return between 9pm and 10pm was 0.39%, then just 0.05% the following hour.
Despite these unspectacular immediate reactions, the aggregate effects are measurable. The correlation coefficient (R²) between Strategy purchases and Bitcoin's valuation stands at 0.87, a level comparable to that observed for ETFs.
This shows that constant and concentrated capital flows have a clear effect on valuation dynamics. Even if the market reaction is delayed, recurring buying pressure from Strategy, like other treasury companies, is fuelling Bitcoin's long-term rise.
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Modelling the future capital flows of ETFs and companies
Bitcoin spot ETFs have already injected $45 billion since their launch, with annual growth in flows of 115% between June 2024 and June 2025. If this momentum were to continue until June 2026, cumulative flows would increase by a further $51.8 billion.
On the corporate side, the strategy developed by Strategy represents an average of $8.37 billion in purchases per year over the period from June 2020 to June 2025, with an average annual growth rate of 217%. If this trend were to continue, it would represent an additional $26.5 billion in purchases over one year.
To assess the overall impact on the market, a model combines these two demand drivers by weighting the multiplier effects estimated earlier. Assuming that ETFs account for two-thirds of the total and Strategy for one-third, the aggregate multiplier effect is estimated at 35 (i.e. 28 multiplied by 0.67 for ETFs and 48 multiplied by 0.33 for Strategy).
Applying this same principle to the projected flows ($51.8 billion for ETFs and $26.5 billion for Strategy),the weighted total comes to $43.8 billion. With a multiplier of 35, this could represent an increase in capitalisation of $1,535 billion, or a potential gain of around $76,000 on the current Bitcoin price.
This scenario is based on conservative assumptions, derived from past growth rates in ETF flows and cash strategies. It does not yet take into account possible second-order effects linked to wider adoption by governments, or the strategic dynamics that could ensue.
What if governments really got into the act?
To date, governments around the world hold around 527,000 bitcoins, valued at $54.8 billion at current prices. This is less than Strategy's reserves, but twice as much as the assets held by ETFs. However, this figure could change rapidly.
Many governments, including the United States, are studying the possibility of including Bitcoin in their strategic reserves. At the same time, some nations are already actively buying or mining Bitcoin, which could push these volumes higher in the coming years.
Today, the benchmark asset for central banks remains gold, with global reserves estimated at $3,950 billion. If even a marginal part of these reserves were to be reallocated to Bitcoin, the impact could be considerable.
Three scenarios are considered: in the conservative case (Bear case), a reallocation of just 1% would push up the price of Bitcoin by $69,000. In a median scenario (5%), the movement would be much more structural, and a transfer of 10% of reserves (Bull case) would have an even more profound impact on the asset's valuation ($690,000).
The Big Whale's opinion
Since the arrival of spot ETFs, Bitcoin has clearly become an institutional asset. The capital flows generated by these players largely elude retail investors, especially as they continue to increase year on year.
Despite its current size, Bitcoin remains a modest asset compared with gold, equity markets, money market funds or global real estate. On the order books, the depth of the market remains shallow with amplitudes of +/-2%, which limits the ability of individuals to influence the price. For their part, institutional buyers like Strategy clearly have no intention of selling in the short term.
However, this dynamic raises a fundamental question: is the massive adoption by institutions beneficial for the ecosystem? The latter now hold around 15% of the supply in circulation, a figure that is rising steadily.
Some observers, committed to Satoshi Nakamoto's original vision, are concerned about a growing concentration of assets. Indeed, from the point of view of ownership, centralisation is progressing. However, the network's operation is based above all on an architecture of decentralised nodes, which guarantees the protocol's resistance to attacks, both internal and external.
In the short to medium term, the institutional influence on Bitcoin's price is clear. It reinforces its status as a safe-haven asset and monetary protection, which is favourable for holders. But this movement also entails a risk: the solvency of the companies accumulating massive amounts of Bitcoins. If one of them, like Strategy, were to default, this could trigger a rapid and massive liquidation, weighing heavily on the price and confidence in the asset.
