TBW - Market analysis of the week
It has been a week of procrastination for the crypto-asset market. After hitting a low of $59,930 on 6 February, Bitcoin appears to have traded in its legendary volatility for a narrow consolidation phase, hovering between $60,000 and $70,000.
Despite an attempted $10,000 bounce, the buying momentum singularly lacks conviction to reverse the underlying trend.
One eye on macro, the other on employment
The middle of the week was marked by a glimmer of hope: US inflation (CPI) came out at 2.4% year-on-year, just a hair below the 2.5% expected. Although the market briefly welcomed the news on Friday, the euphoria died down like a soufflé. The reason? These figures do not change the Federal Reserve's equation for March.
Jerome Powell remains focused on a labour market that refuses to bend. With 130,000 jobs created (compared with 55,000 expected) and the unemployment rate at 4.3%, the US economy is showing a resilience that weakens the scenario of an imminent rate cut. For investors, the message is clear: money will remain expensive for a little longer than expected.
The Harvard signal and the ETF exodus
It is undoubtedly on the institutional side that the movements are most significant. The management of Harvard University has made a noteworthy arbitrage: a 21% reduction in its exposure to Bitcoin via BlackRock's IBIT, in favour of an entry into Ethereum. A rotation that reflects a search for relative value, even if the price of ether remains glued to the wake of the 'king' Bitcoin for the time being.
The overall picture remains tinged with red for index products, moreover. Crypto ETFs recorded $900 million in net outflows last week, bringing the one-month total to $4.75 billion. BTC and ETH alone accounted for almost 60% of these outflows, confirming a tactical disengagement by institutional allocators.
The Big Whale's analysis
The market is running out of steam, that's a fact. Volumes are declining and the lack of liquidity is locking prices into a technical tunnel. Looking at the liquidation heatmap, we can see that prices are bouncing mechanically between capital clusters at the $60,000 and $70,000 mark.
More worrying for market psychology: the Bitcoin premium on Coinbase remains deeply negative. This is indicative of persistent selling pressure in the US, often synonymous with institutional capital outflows.
Yet a paradox remains. While prices are stalling, the underlying technological infrastructure continues to integrate into traditional financial systems at record speed. We are witnessing a classic decoupling between fundamental value (real adoption) and market value, dictated by speculation.
A phenomenon with which financial analysts are familiar: that of an undervalued stock whose fundamentals will eventually catch up with the price, provided certain locks are broken.
To break out of this lethargy, three catalysts seem essential:
- A strong signal from central bankers to revive speculative liquidity.
- A final purge of leveraged positions to clean up the market.
- A return of ETF inflows to the highs seen in the summer of 2025.
Until then, patience remains the best ally of digital asset managers.