TBW - Market analysis of the week
Analysis of the market structure at the end of February reveals a basic trend: persistent stagnation, punctuated by episodes of technical volatility.
Despite an attempt to break below the critical support of $65,000, Bitcoin was quickly bought back, confirming the importance of this threshold for traders.
Fragmented and reactive liquidity
The 1.52% rise seen last Friday, buoyed by $88.1 million in net inflows to ETFs, was just a flash in the pan. The publication of US GDP at 1.4% (compared with expectations of 2.8%) did cause an immediate correction in the DXY (-0.11%), but the dollar's loss of steam was not enough to support risky assets over the long term.
The altcoin market suffered a harsher fate: after an initial rise of 1.64%, the sector fell by 3% following the breakdown of its own support, bringing overall capitalisation (excluding BTC) down to around $650 billion.
Leverage hunt: $500m evaporated
The weekend's brutal selloff, marked by aggressive downward candle wicks, bears the signature of a leverage purge. The liquidation data is stark: $505 million was liquidated in 24 hours, with more than 70% ($358 million) concentrated in the BTC/ETH duo.
The tightening of the Bitcoin range suggests that volatility will continue to be expressed in both directions to "clean out" highly leveraged positions, particularly between $64,000 and $68,000. On Ethereum, the $1,850 and $1,960 levels are now the high and low bounds to watch closely.
ETF flows: the haemorrhage continues
Short-term institutional disinterest materialises in a net outflow of $423 million from ETFs last week. This "bleed" dynamic highlights a structural fragility: a few days of massive outflows are enough to wipe out several sessions of positive inflows.
However, a positive nuance is emerging on the side of the "on-chain" indicators:
- Point of convergence: The ratio of profit and loss supply is balancing at 50/50.
- HODLing: Long-term holders have stopped selling since 13 February.
This behaviour suggests that the market has entered a waiting phase, where only the return of significant volumes and the purging of liquidation levels will allow this horizontal channel to be broken.
The Big Whale's analysis
The Trump administration's imposition of 15% tariffs on all imports could be the black swan of the week. Given the historical correlation between tech and crypto-assets, uncertainty is at an all-time high.
In a market where liquidity has shrunk considerably, prices are reacting disproportionately to low flows, leaving the field open for market makers to orchestrate targeted liquidations.
Are we at a low point, however? Caution.
If previous cycles are anything to go by, loss-making supply could rise by another 10% or so before reaching the levels typical of historic lows. Against this backdrop of macroeconomic and pricing fragility, a further correction cannot be ruled out.
