election

Market Manipulation Allegations in Polymarket's US Presidential Election Prediction Markets

The Big Whale

— 1 min read
  • Bitcoin investors should expect low returns in September, historically the worst month for Bitcoin's price action.
  • Few catalysts for Bitcoin in the coming weeks, with focus on macroeconomic data and monetary decisions.
  • The fourth quarter has historically been strong for Bitcoin, with October and November showing significant gains.
  • The upcoming US presidential election in November is a major concern for the crypto market.
  • Crypto investors have been selling off digital asset investment products in the past two weeks.
  • Positive price action in Bitcoin and US stocks may turn investors into net buyers.
  • A federal judge has issued a temporary stay on a decision allowing prediction market Kalshi to list bets for the US election.
  • Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer omit any mention of crypto in their policy positions and letters.
  • Users of the prediction platform Polymarket predict a 13% chance of Trump mentioning "crypto" in the presidential debate.
  • Kalshi's move to offer contracts tied to the US election is on hold pending a hearing on Thursday.
  • Kalshi’s listing of prediction markets on the US election is delayed until after the hearing on Thursday.
  • Traders allege market manipulation in Polymarket's prediction markets for the US presidential election.
  • Attempts to manipulate Polymarket's price were unsuccessful, but raise concerns about illiquid and manipulatable markets.
  • Researchers trace funding transactions for a large trader on Polymarket to Coinbase.
  • Polymarket continues to operate and grow despite claims of inappropriate trading and US customer ban.

Summary :
Last week, there were allegations of market manipulation in the prediction markets for the US presidential election on Polymarket. Traders claimed that wealthy individuals were attempting to manipulate the market by placing large sell orders and causing price fluctuations. The manipulation was focused on a subsidiary market that expired on September 6, using the main November 4 market as its oracle. However, despite the attempts, the strategy was ultimately unsuccessful. Polymarket, which prohibits US users from its platform, has grown considerably despite claims of inappropriate trading or US customers.

Sources :

- CoinTelegraph
- Bankless
- Bankless
- Coindesk
- CoinTelegraph
- TheBlock
- TheBlock
- CoinTelegraph
- Coindesk
- Protos

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